Investors ended 2018 focused on the possibility of a recession in 2019 or 2020. Market declines precede an actual recession as investors begin selling before the actual event occurring. Market analysts are trying to sooth investors’ concerns by commenting that the market decline will not be bad because there is no recession in sight.Add News Story here
It appears for the third year in a row that strategist’s predictions for market gains for the coming year will again be too low. In 2016 the consensus by strategists was for mid-single digit gains. STIR’s Outlook was to expect double digits gains with a goal of 2500, and that is what the market delivered! In 2017, the consensus of ten Wall Street Strategist Forecasts (Barron’s) was again for mid-single gains of 6.3%. STIR was alone in calling for a 20% move to 2700. And the market delivered with a 19.4% gain. For 2018, the mean S&P forecast by the ten strategists in Barron’s is for a 5% rally to 2840. Once again, we believe that is way too low.
In 2016 the consensus by strategist was for mid-single digit gains. STIR Research went on record saying the estimates were too low and to expect a gain of double digits with a goal of 2500 for the S&P, and that is what the market delivered! We mention this not to toot our own horn, but to point out that we believe the consensus is again too low.